Review of “Oestrogen Matters” Avram Bluming and Carol Tavris, TLS 29th January 2019

In the current TLS I have a brief review of Bluming and Tavris’ book on HRT. The full text is available to subscribers; here is the first paragraph:

Few medical treatments have seen as stark a rise and fall as hormone replacement therapy (HRT). In the early 1940s, methods were developed to extract oestrogen from pregnant mares’ urine, and the resulting medication was named Premarin. Marketed from the 1950s for menopausal symptoms, HRT was catapulted into the public consciousness by the New York gynaecologist Robert Wilson’s bestseller Feminine Forever (1966), and made Ayerst Laboratories, who had developed Premarin and paid Wilson’s expenses for writing the book, extremely rich. HRT was hyped as a wonder drug adding years to life and life to years

Are we winning the War on Sleeplessness?

Or, as the authors of this paper put it, are we seeing the “first signs of success in the fight against sleep deficiency?”

Abstract:

STUDY OBJECTIVES:

The high prevalence of chronic insufficient sleep in the population has been a concern due to the associated health and safety risks. We evaluated secular trends in sleep duration over the most recent 14-year period.

METHODS:

The American Time Use Survey, representative of US residents ≥15 years, was used to investigate trends in self-reported sleep duration and waking activities for the period 2003-2016 (N = 181335 respondents).

RESULTS:

Sleep duration increased across survey years both on weekdays (+1.40 min/year) and weekends (+0.83 min/year, both p < .0001, adjusted models). This trend was observed in students, employed respondents, and retirees, but not in those unemployed or not in the labor force. On workdays, the prevalence of short (≤7 hr), average (>7-9 hr), and long (>9 hr) sleep changed by -0.44% per year (p < .0001), -0.03% per year (p = .5515), and +0.48% per year (p < .0001), respectively. The change in sleep duration was predominantly explained by respondents retiring earlier in the evening. The percentage of respondents who watched TV or read before bed-two prominent waking activities competing with sleep-decreased over the same time period, suggesting that portions of the population are increasingly willing to trade time in leisure activities for more sleep. The results also suggest that increasing online opportunities to work, learn, bank, shop, and perform administrative tasks from home freed up time that likely contributed to increased sleep duration.

CONCLUSIONS:

The findings indicate first successes in the fight against sleep deficiency. Public health consequences of the observed increase in the prevalence of long sleep remain unclear and warrant further investigation

Here is the American Time Use Survey which the authors used for their study.

Efficacy of PRIME, a Mobile App Intervention Designed to Improve Motivation in Young People With Schizophrenia

From Schizophrenia Bulletin:

The onset of schizophrenia occurs during a period critical for development of social relationships and functional independence. As such, interventions that target the early course of illness have the potential to stave off functional decline and restore functioning to pre-illness levels. In this entirely remote study, people with recent-onset schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) participated in a 12-week randomized controlled trial to determine the efficacy of PRIME (personalized real-time intervention for motivational enhancement), a mobile-based digital health intervention designed to improve motivation and quality of life. Participants were randomized into the PRIME (n = 22) or treatment-as-usual/waitlist (TAU/WL) condition (n = 21) and completed assessments at baseline, post-trial (12 wk), and for people in the PRIME condition, 3 months after the end of the trial. After 12-weeks, WL participants received PRIME, resulting in a total sample of 38 participants completing PRIME. In PRIME, participants worked towards self-identified goals with the support of a virtual community of age-matched peers with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders as well as motivation coaches. Compared to the WL condition, people in the PRIME condition had significantly greater improvements in self-reported depression, defeatist beliefs, self-efficacy, and a trend towards motivation/pleasure negative symptoms post-trial, and these improvements were maintained 3 months after the end of trial. We also found that people in the PRIME condition had significantly greater improvements in components of social motivation post-trial (anticipated pleasure and effort expenditure). Our results suggest that PRIME has the potential to be an effective mobile-based intervention for improving aspects of mood and motivation in young people with SSDs.

Dept. of Unfortunate Acronyms

Via #revScreen comes the following:

J Hum Hypertens. 1996 Feb;10 Suppl 1:S69-72.
Interactive electronic teaching (ISIS): has the future started?
Consoli SM1, Ben Said M, Jean J, Menard J, Plouin PF, Chatelier G.
Author information
Abstract
Medical education of hypertensives as well as of other asymptomatic cardiovascular risk patients requires individualized, interactive and attractive strategies. Electronic teaching set up in hospital or clinic settings opens the way of the future, saving time and allowing more advantageous use of caretakers. ISIS (Initiation Sanitaire Informatisee et Scenarisee), a French computer assisted program for cardiovascular risk patients, combines a scientific information, divided in 12 sequential but independent modules, with a recreative imaginary trip in the world of ancient Egypt. To test the impact of this tool on patient health information retention, 158 hypertensives hospitalized in a day-hospital clinic were randomized into an intervention or ISIS group (IG, n = 79) and a control group (CG, n = 79). Both groups received cardiovascular education through standard means. In addition, IG patients underwent a 30 to 60 min session on the computer. Cardiovascular knowledge was tested by a nurse administering a standardized 28-item questionnaire before and two months after education. Retesting was done by telephone interview. A total of 138 completed questionnaires (69 from each group) were analyzed. Overall mean cardiovascular knowledge score before education (14.3 +/- 4.2, range 4-25) improved significantly after education (3.7 +/- 3.5, p = 0.0001). This improvement was more important in the IG than the CG (3.8 +/- 3.6 vs 2.4 +/- 3.2 respectively, p = 0.02), especially in hypertensives having a known disease for more than six months. Isis is now available in two languages: French and English. Patients’ satisfaction and the conclusion of this comparative trial encourage confirmation of these first results in other French or English speaking populations, in order to test the long term effects of structured electronic teaching sessions on health behaviour, and to promote a wide use of computers and multimedia communication in hypertension control programs.

#revScreen – Cochrane Crowd Challenges on home visiting and medical education

Previously I blogged about the addictive nature of EMBASE Screening. This is now rebranded as Cochrane Crowd, but the overall approach is unchanged – the user assesses abtracts to see if they are RCTs/CCTs or not. It it surprisingly addictive.

cochrane crowd logo

 

Anyhow, there are two new Cochrane tasks – screening for RCTs for two specific reviews Home visiting for socially disadvantaged mothers, and  Interventions for improving medical students’ interpersonal communication in medical consultation. 

If any readers are interested in these areas, the Cochrane Crowd process exposes one to a wide range of (at times rather tenuously related) studies and papers on the topic… I tend to get sidetracked easily.

Anyhow, here is the email:

Dear all,

 

We need your help!

 

When you next log into Cochrane Crowd you will be able to see two new ‘tasks’ in your dashboard area. One is for an update of a review entitled: Home visiting for socially disadvantaged mothers, and the other is for a new review, called: Interventions for improving medical students’ interpersonal communication in medical consultations.

 

The searches for each of these reviews has identified between 3000-5000 records. The core author team for each review has come toCochrane Crowd asking if this community can help. I think we can.

 

Before you dive in, here are some questions you might have:

 

What do I need to do that is different from the usual RCT screening task?

Absolutely nothing. The task is exactly the same making you very well qualified to help! We want all the randomized or quasi-randomized trials to be identified even if the trial has nothing to do with the topic of the review.

 

What’s in it for me?

For those who screen 250 or more records, your contribution will be acknowledged in the review for which you contributed. In addition, on one of the reviews, the home visiting review, the review team will reward authorship to the top screener. This will be based not just on the amount you screen but the accuracy of your screening.

 

How long will these tasks be posted for?

We’ve set the deadline for 31st March. It would be fantastic to have both sets of records screened by that date.

 

Who can I contact if I have any questions or queries?

You can either contact me, Anna, (anna.noel-storr@rdm.ox.ac.uk) or my brilliant colleague, Emily (crowd@cochrane.org) and we’ll try and get back to you as quickly as possible.

 

Do I need to let anyone know if I plan to contribute or not?

No, you don’t need to let us know either way. If you want to contribute to either or both reviews, just log into Crowd and get cracking! We’ll know who has taken part. Likewise, if this just isn’t for you or you don’t think you’ll have the time, that’s absolutely fine; you don’t need to let us know.

 

When can I start?

Right now! Go and make a nice cup of tea and hop over to Cochrane Crowd (http://crowd.cochrane.org). Log in as usual and you should see the two new tasks. I think I’ll head there now myself.

If you’re a twitterer, we’ll be using #RevScreen for these two exciting pilots!

 

With best wishes to all and happy citation screening,

 

 

Anna and Emily

 

Cochrane Crowd

 

Unintended consquences and league tables

I have just finished Simon Westaby’s memoir Fragile Lives: A Heart Surgeon’s Stories of Life and Death on the Operating Table . This is for a review which will follow in due course. The main focus of the book is on the stories of the patients and the surgeries themselves, some passages have a (literal) heart-stopping intensity.

One recurrent theme, towards the end of the book especially, is the deleterious effect of blame culture and league tables on surgical practice. Prof Westaby, it turns out, wrote a recent paper on surgeon’s perception of this:

National Survey of UK Consultant Surgeons’ Opinions on Surgeon-Specific Mortality Data in Cardiothoracic Surgery

Abstract

Background—In the United Kingdom, cardiothoracic surgeons have led the outcome reporting revolution seen over the last 20 years. The objective of this survey was to assess cardiothoracic surgeons’ opinions on the topic, with the aim of guiding future debate and policy making for all subspecialties.

Methods and Results—A questionnaire was developed using interviews with experts in the field. In January 2015, the survey was sent out to all consultant cardiothoracic surgeons in the United Kingdom (n=361). Logistic regression, bivariate correlation, and the χ2 test were used to assess whether there was a relationship between answers and demographic variables. Free-text responses were analyzed using the grounded theory approach. The response rate was 73% (n=264). The majority of respondents (58.1% oppose, 34.1% favor, and 7.8% neither) oppose the public release of surgeon-specific mortality data and associate it with several adverse consequences. These include risk-averse behavior, gaming of data, and misinterpretation of data by the public. Despite this, the majority overwhelmingly supports publication of team-based measures of outcome. The free-text responses suggest that this is because most believe that quality of care is multifactorial and not represented by an individual’s mortality rate.

Conclusions—There is evident opposition to surgeon-specific mortality data among UK cardiothoracic surgeons who associate this with several unintended consequences. Policy makers should refine their strategy behind publication of surgeon-specific mortality data and possibly consider shift toward team-based results for which there will be the required support. Stakeholder feedback and inclusive strategy should be completed before introducing major initiatives to avoid unforeseen consequences and disagreements

This was reported in the Daily Telegraph as follows:

Patients are dying because heart surgeons are too worried about their mortality ratings to operate on critically ill people, a major study has found.

One surgeon claimed he had a watched a three-year-old child die waiting for a valve replacement because a doctor was “too chicken” to operate because of the potential risk to his reputation.

Another warned that surgeons had “become experts in running away from difficult cases”.

 Patients have been able to see league tables showing how well doctors perform on an NHS website since 2014, while information about individual heart surgeons has been available for a decade.

But nine in 10 heart surgeons claim that publishing individual data has led to blame culture where the sickest patients are denied treatment for fear it will lead to an investigation if they die in theatre.

Research carried out by doctors including Stephen Westaby, of the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, and Professor Lord Darzi, chair of surgery at Imperial College and a government adviser, found nearly 60 per cent of surgeons said they were opposed to the current system.

Some 87 per cent of the 264 heart surgeons who replied to a survey said that publication of surgeon specific mortality data had caused a “risk averse” culture in the NHS.

Report author Dr Westaby said: “We have been trying to establish what has been happening among colleagues for some time now. It’s so damning you can hardly believe [it].

“Doctors won’t see a patient if they think it will be a risk to their reputation.

“And it’s often the guys that are doing the sickest patients who end up with the worst scores, because their patients are more likely to die.”

One wrote: “Decisions have become about protecting me, not about what is best for the patient. This is a terrible form of medicine to practice. There is no dignity at the end of life, with surgeons delaying inevitable adverse outcomes in the hope of a miracle or transferring patients to other units so that they don’t count in the figures.”

Another said: “When previously surgeons would have been willing to give it a go on a patient who was certain to die, as there as nothing to lose, now they will be concerned that there is quite a lot to lose.”

“The Wild West of Health” care: mental health Apps, evidence, and clinical credibility

We read and hear much about the promise of mobile health. Crucial in the acceptance of mobile health by the clinical community is clinical credibility. And now, clinical credibility is synonymous with evidence, and just “evidence” but reliable, solid evidence. I’ve blogged before about studies of the quality of mental health smartphone apps. I missed this piece from Nature which, slightly predictably, is titled “Mental Health: There’s an app for that.” (isn’t “there’s an App for that a little 2011-ish though?) It begins by surveying the immense range of mental health-focused apps out there:

 

Type ‘depression’ into the Apple App Store and a list of at least a hundred programs will pop up on the screen. There are apps that diagnose depression (Depression Test), track moods (Optimism) and help people to “think more positive” (Affirmations!). There’s Depression Cure Hypnosis (“The #1 Depression Cure Hypnosis App in the App Store”), Gratitude Journal (“the easiest and most effective way to rewire your brain in just five minutes a day”), and dozens more. And that’s just for depression. There are apps pitched at people struggling with anxiety, schizophrenia, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), eating disorders and addiction.

The article also has a snazzy  infographic illustrating both the lack of mental health services and the size of the market:

naturegraph

The meat of the article, however, focuses on the lack of evidence and evaluation of these apps. There is a cultural narrative which states that Technology = Good and Efficient, Healthcare = Bad and Broken and which can give the invocation of Tech the status of a godterm, pre-empting critical thought. The Nature piece, however, starkly illustrates the evidence gap:

But the technology is moving a lot faster than the science. Although there is some evidence that empirically based, well-designed mental-health apps can improve outcomes for patients, the vast majority remain unstudied. They may or may not be effective, and some may even be harmful. Scientists and health officials are now beginning to investigate their potential benefits and pitfalls more thoroughly, but there is still a lot left to learn and little guidance for consumers.

“If you type in ‘depression’, its hard to know if the apps that you get back are high quality, if they work, if they’re even safe to use,” says John Torous, a psychiatrist at Harvard Medical School in Boston, Massachusetts, who chairs the American Psychiatric Association’s Smartphone App Evaluation Task Force. “Right now it almost feels like the Wild West of health care.”

There isn’t an absolute lack of evidence, but there are issues with  much of the evidence that is out there:

Much of the research has been limited to pilot studies, and randomized trials tend to be small and unreplicated. Many studies have been conducted by the apps’ own developers, rather than by independent researchers. Placebo-controlled trials are rare, raising the possibility that a ‘digital placebo effect’ may explain some of the positive outcomes that researchers have documented, says Torous. “We know that people have very strong relationships with their smartphones,” and receiving messages and advice through a familiar, personal device may be enough to make some people feel better, he explains.

And even saying that (and, in passing, I would note that in branch of medical practice, a placebo effect is something to be harnessed, not denigrated – but in evaluation and study, rigorously minimising it is crucial) there is a considerable lack of evidence:

But the bare fact is that most apps haven’t been tested at all. A 2013 review8 identified more than 1,500 depression-related apps in commercial app stores but just 32 published research papers on the subject. In another study published that year9, Australian researchers applied even more stringent criteria, searching the scientific literature for papers that assessed how commercially available apps affected mental-health symptoms or disorders. They found eight papers on five different apps.

The same year, the NHS launched a library of “safe and trusted” health apps that included 14 devoted to treating depression or anxiety. But when two researchers took a close look at these apps last year, they found that only 4 of the 14 provided any evidence to support their claims10. Simon Leigh, a health economist at Lifecode Solutions in Liverpool, UK, who conducted the analysis, says he wasn’t shocked by the finding because efficacy research is costly and may mean that app developers have less to spend on marketing their products.

Like any healthcare intervention, an App can have adverse effects:

When a team of Australian researchers reviewed 82 commercially available smartphone apps for people with bipolar disorder12, they found that some presented information that was “critically wrong”. One, called iBipolar, advised people in the middle of a manic episode to drink hard liquor to help them to sleep, and another, called What is Biopolar Disorder, suggested that bipolar disorder could be contagious. Neither app seems to be available any more.

And even more fundamentally, in some situations the App concept itself and the close relationship with gamification can backfire:

Even well-intentioned apps can produce unpredictable outcomes. Take Promillekoll, a smartphone app created by Sweden’s government-owned liquor retailer, designed to help curb risky drinking. While out at a pub or a party, users enter each drink they consume and the app spits out an approximate blood-alcohol concentration.

When Swedish researchers tested the app on college students, they found that men who were randomly assigned to use the app ended up drinking more frequently than before, although their total alcohol consumption did not increase. “We can only speculate that app users may have felt more confident that they could rely on the app to reduce negative effects of drinking and therefore felt able to drink more often,” the researchers wrote in their 2014 paper13.

It’s also possible, the scientists say, that the app spurred male students to turn drinking into a game. “I think that these apps are kind of playthings,” says Anne Berman, a clinical psychologist at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm and one of the study’s authors. There are other risks too. In early trials of ClinTouch, researchers found that the symptom-monitoring app actually exacerbated symptoms for a small number of patients with psychotic disorders, says John Ainsworth at the University of Manchester, who helped to develop the app. “We need to very carefully manage the initial phases of somebody using this kind of technology and make sure they’re well monitored,” he says.

I am very glad to read that one of the mHealth apps which is a model of evidence based practice is one that I have both used and recommended myself – Sleepio:

sleepio-logo

One digital health company that has earned praise from experts is Big Health, co-founded by Colin Espie, a sleep scientist at the University of Oxford, UK, and entrepreneur Peter Hames. The London-based company’s first product is Sleepio, a digital treatment for insomnia that can be accessed online or as a smartphone app. The app teaches users a variety of evidence-based strategies for tackling insomnia, including techniques for managing anxious and intrusive thoughts, boosting relaxation, and establishing a sleep-friendly environment and routine.

Before putting Sleepio to the test, Espie insisted on creating a placebo version of the app, which had the same look and feel as the real app, but led users through a set of sham visualization exercises with no known clinical benefits. In a randomized trial, published in 2012, Espie and his colleagues found that insomniacs using Sleepio reported greater gains in sleep efficiency — the percentage of time someone is asleep, out of the total time he or she spends in bed — and slightly larger improvements in daytime functioning than those using the placebo app15. In a follow-up 2014 paper16, they reported that Sleepio also reduced the racing, intrusive thoughts that can often interfere with sleep.

The Sleepio team is currently recruiting participants for a large, international trial and has provided vouchers for the app to several groups of independent researchers so that patients who enrol in their studies can access Sleepio for free.

sleepioprog

This is extremely heartening – and as stated above, clinical credibility is key in the success of any eHealth / mHealth approach. And what does clinical credibility really mean? That something works, and works well.

 

 

Can you put your hands around your own neck?

Full text available here. Readers will be delighted to learn I can do it (just)  – but as the authors point out this doesn’t particularly rule OSA out…

A pilot study of the inability to fit hands around neck as a predictor of obstructive sleep apnea. 

Abstract
Background: Considering the high estimates of undiagnosed and untreated obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), there is a need for simple and accurate diagnostic tests. Neck circumference has long been correlated with OSA, but its usefulness as a diagnostic tool has been limited.

Aims: We proposed to evaluate the value of a simple neck grasp test to help identify OSA. We hypothesized that the inability of a patient in a sleep clinic to fit their hands around their neck is predictive of OSA.

Materials and Methods: A retrospective review of medical records of patients evaluated in a general sleep clinic was performed. Easy sleep apnea predictor (ESAP) positive was defined as the inability to place the hands around the neck with digits touching in the anterior and posterior. ESAP negative was the ability to place hands around the neck. Positive for OSA in this symptomatic sleep clinic population was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of ≥5.

 

Results: A total of 47 subjects (36% female) had ESAP data available, which were reviewed. The mean age was 51.6 years (SD 14.4, range 29-81 years). The mean body mass index (BMI) was 38.8 (SD 9.9, range 20.4-69.5). Review showed 87.2% (N = 41) tested positive for OSA by AHI of ≥5. The sensitivity and specificity of ESAP were 68.3% and 100%, respectively. The positive predictive power was 100% and the negative predictive power was 31.6%.

Conclusion:

As we hypothesized, ESAP positive (inability to span neck) was predictive of OSA in a population of sleep clinic patients. An ESAP positive test was 100% predictive of the presence of OSA (AHI of ≥5). ESAP shows promise for ease of clinical use to predict the presence of OSA in a general sleep clinic population.